A few weeks ago, my wife and family and I visited Berlin. Christmas is a great time to visit German cities and enjoy festive markets and the delicious Glühwein.
As we headed to Dublin airport, I mentioned terrorism to my companions. It was a brief mention, hopefully not a dampener on our lively mood. I pointed out that Christmas markets are potential targets of terrorist attacks, and it’s important to be aware of your surroundings.
Knowing the nearest exit or substantial object for protection or concealment is crucial in an emergency. This knowledge is easily acquired through awareness.
Basic security awareness should accompany you everywhere, as Thomas Jefferson famously said, “The price of freedom is eternal vigilance”.
Reflecting on the news of the awful attack in Germany on Friday night, I recalled my conversation with family members. The attack on the Christmas market in Magdeburg shocking, but not surprising. Christmas markets are attractive targets for violent extremists due to their ideological and practical appeal. Last weekend was a peak risk.
These markets attract large crowds in confined areas, and the consistent opening times and locations provide terrorists with patterns to exploit.
The peak footfall for any Christmas market, is likely to peak on the final weekend before Christmas. By which stage anyone targeting the market has had the opportunity to identify any vulnerability in the security arrangements. The markets are symbolic of western culture, values, freedoms and of course Christianity.
The Christmas period itself amplifies the impact and poignancy of terrorism, something we know all too well. For all these reasons, the targeting of Christmas markets has happened before and will happen again. This is why I had a brief conversation with my family.
After terrorist attacks, we often hear about intelligence failures, but that’s often a flawed reaction.There is no such thing as complete intelligence . Sometimes it’s precise, sometimes general, or nonexistent.
By extension, but often overlooked, is that an absence of intelligence is not an excuse for a lack of preparation. How often do we hear, “there was no intelligence of any attack” nor any “prior information” about the attacker.
Intelligence gaps should be a working assumption of law enforcement, this assumption should combined with professional judgment about what are the foreseeable risks and when those risks are likely to be highest.
This is why it pays to be informed by intelligence, but not reliant on it. Lone wolves, as they are often called present particular intelligence challenges, as unlike organisations there is no organisation to penetrate.
A key takeaway for those in law enforcement or planning large event, is to never be reliant on intelligence of a specific attack. Attacks such as the Magdeburg are foreseeable and foreseeable risks need mitigated through a baseline of security measures, tactics and public messaging which can then be augmented when intelligence highlights a particular threat. This comes at a cost, but freedom isn’t free.
Of course, as much as there is no such thing as complete intelligence nor is there such a thing as total security. Not only is total security unachievable, its pursuit is undesirable as there are trade off’s between security and liberty. No one wants to live in a police state.
However, security measures that are both less invasive and austere are more attainable than ever, thanks to technology. Facial recognition technology for example has enabled some police forces to be more precise and less intrusive in picking up suspects for crime in the street.
Similarly, physical infrastructure to protect zones in the public realm from vehicle attacks have advanced greatly. Public building and areas can now be protected by installations that are noting like the austere the rings of steel of old. Think planters, park benches and attractive bollards.
It is in relation to such physical counter measures that there may may be lessons to be drawn from the Magdeburg attack.
It has been reported that the anti vehicles barriers in place around the market had a gap to afford access and egress for emergency service vehicles. If this was the case and the gap was exploited by the attacker there are obvious questions.
If a venue is assessed as requiring anti vehicle installations, then the perimeter protection should be as complete as possible. Terrorists typically do reconnaissance and will for look for vulnerabilities to exploit.
Access and egress of emergency services to event spaces is vital (as proven in the aftermath of the attack), but there are smarter option than leaving a glaring hole in your defences. The particular issue must be addressed going forward.
Of course terrorists tactics change, the next attack could be a marauding gun or knife attack, instead of a weaponised vehicle. Countering terrorism is far from straightforward and we should be grateful for the dedication of those who work to keep us safe and who run toward danger when things happen.
Law enforcement and security services need to expect the unexpected and identify and mitigate foreseeable risks. Intelligence is great when you have it, professional judgement is indispensable when you don’t. At terrorist attack on a Christmas market should be on every police forces risk register.
I conclude by returning to the lessons for private citizen – you and me. There is no such thing as complete intelligence or total security, so develop a modicum of security awareness that will keep you safe as you travel. Terrorists attacks like the one we saw this weekend in Germany are rare, but their consequences are catastrophic
Next time you are in a Christmas market, concert hall or other large venue full of people take a moment to think – if something did happen where are the exit points – what object affords me some solid protection? This will become a habit to the extent you do it subconsciously and still fully enjoy yourself.
The blame for terrorism lies with the attacker, their accomplices and those who radicalise them. However, the lessons from attacks are for all of us to heed.
Freedom isn’t free and its cost is eternal vigilance.
I wish you a safe and merry Christmas.
Burrows Blog 